Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

71.45 – 122.6

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

48 – 169

Prediction correct · off by 34.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 115.4 ±14.5

8557ConquEra

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 38.84Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8780TED ROBOTICS

Season APEX 18.3Event APEX 5.36Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9583Lavender Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 27.25Rank 12Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 220.7 ±16.7

10396Mostra

Season APEX 127.8Event APEX 81.68Rank 8Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10246ISTAF Team Infinitech

Season APEX 30.5Event APEX 15.8Rank 11Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

11022RISING STAR ROBOTIC TEAM

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 25.12Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8557, 8780, 9583

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.5 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 8557, 8780, 9583

Auto

23.6 31%

Teleop

40.5 54%

Endgame

11.5 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10396, 10246, 11022

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.6 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10396, 10246, 11022

Auto

16.9 14%

Teleop

77.8 66%

Endgame

23.2 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.06 · Blue 1.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score71.5pts

Blue projected score122.6pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -51.1
Score range: 46–148
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 217 vs event baseline 139.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

115.4Season APEX220.7

23.6Auto16.9

40.5Teleop77.8

11.5Endgame23.2

18Consistency13

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	30
teleop	11	101
endgame	20	23
foul	0	15
total	48	169

Result

Final score

48 – 169

Prediction correct · off by 34.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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