Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

33.71 – 102.59

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

29 – 30

Prediction correct · off by 38.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 67.7 ±19.7

10472Bilkent Next

Provisional

Season APEX 16.6Event APEX 11.13Rank 29Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

11099Capella Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 20Event APEX 18.47Rank 33Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

8561Cartesian Robotics

Season APEX 31.1Event APEX 4.11Rank 24Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 160 ±18.1

6874Mediterra

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 47.96Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 77

8056Laissez Faire

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 45.76Rank 9Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10478NEO Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 33.6Event APEX 8.87Rank 25Record 4-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10472, 11099, 8561

/ 100 compat

Projected

33.7 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 10472, 11099, 8561

Auto

12.6 37%

Teleop

22.0 65%

Endgame

-0.8 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6874, 8056, 10478

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.6 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 6874, 8056, 10478

Auto

18.5 19%

Teleop

47.9 50%

Endgame

29.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.96 · Blue 1.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score33.7pts

Blue projected score102.6pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -68.9
Score range: 9–128
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 59 vs event baseline 141.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

67.7Season APEX160

12.6Auto18.5

22Teleop47.9

-0.8Endgame29.4

52Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	11
teleop	8	19
endgame	5	0
foul	5	0
total	29	30

Result

Final score

29 – 30

Prediction correct · off by 38.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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