Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

465.12 – 63.2

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

408 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 38 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 543.5 ±10.4

9609Paraducks

Season APEX 246.2Event APEX 208.71Rank 1Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6431NoktaParantez

Season APEX 154Event APEX 180.35Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7594Nautilus

Season APEX 143.3Event APEX 76.06Rank 10Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 106.9 ±15.7

11098MATRIX

Season APEX 32.2Event APEX 10Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

8863ANATOLIAN DEAF ETERNALS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 40.2Event APEX 30.22Rank 22Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 82

9583Lavender Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 22.98Rank 12Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9609, 6431, 7594

/ 100 compat

Projected

465.1 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9609, 6431, 7594

Auto

72.3 16%

Teleop

257.9 57%

Endgame

118.8 26%

Strengths

· 9609 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11098, 8863, 9583

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.2 pts

~0.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 11098, 8863, 9583

Auto

18.1 28%

Teleop

21.0 33%

Endgame

24.7 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.61 · Blue 0.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score465.1pts

Blue projected score63.2pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 401.9
Score range: 37–491
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 490 vs event baseline 141.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

543.5Season APEX106.9

72.3Auto18.1

257.9Teleop21

118.8Endgame24.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	78	20
teleop	216	45
endgame	114	17
foul	0	0
total	408	82

Result

Final score

408 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 38 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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