Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

86.33 – 204.07

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

156 – 207

Prediction correct · off by 36.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 196.1 ±15.1

10396Mostra

Season APEX 127.8Event APEX 73.3Rank 8Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11257Hi-Sac

Provisional

Season APEX 24.7Event APEX 7.83Rank 32Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

11300ZENITH

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 5.2Rank 17Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 255.1 ±16.7

8780TED ROBOTICS

Season APEX 18.3Event APEX 4.86Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

7539Elev8

Season APEX 213.1Event APEX 170.64Rank 2Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8828EAL Robotics

Season APEX 23.7Event APEX 28.57Rank 21Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10396, 11257, 11300

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.3 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10396, 11257, 11300

Auto

15.1 19%

Teleop

42.8 54%

Endgame

20.9 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8780, 7539, 8828

/ 100 compat

Projected

204.1 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 8780, 7539, 8828

Auto

48.8 25%

Teleop

118.6 61%

Endgame

26.7 14%

Strengths

· 7539 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.79 · Blue 2.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score86.3pts

Blue projected score204.1pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -117.7
Score range: 61–229
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 363 vs event baseline 141.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

196.1Season APEX255.1

15.1Auto48.8

42.8Teleop118.6

20.9Endgame26.7

6Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	48
teleop	71	110
endgame	47	49
foul	0	0
total	156	207

Result

Final score

156 – 207

Prediction correct · off by 36.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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