Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

31.98 – 225.32

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

77 – 292

Prediction correct · off by 55.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 150.9 ±18.1

11064ASTERIA

Provisional

Season APEX 33.4Event APEX -2.34Rank 23Record 4-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

10542EAGLE WARRIORS

Season APEX 55.1Event APEX 14.8Rank 26Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11022RISING STAR ROBOTIC TEAM

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 19.52Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 487.5 ±11.9

5665FENERBAHÇE DOGUS SPARC

Season APEX 148.2Event APEX 45.6Rank 6Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11141AlphaZ

Season APEX 218.1Event APEX 154.28Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6399Tinspiratio

Season APEX 121.2Event APEX 25.44Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11064, 10542, 11022

/ 100 compat

Projected

32 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 11064, 10542, 11022

Auto

22.4 76%

Teleop

2.9 10%

Endgame

4.3 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5665, 11141, 6399

/ 100 compat

Projected

225.3 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 5665, 11141, 6399

Auto

44.1 20%

Teleop

107.2 48%

Endgame

70.1 32%

Strengths

· 11141 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.55 · Blue 2.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score32pts

Blue projected score225.3pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -193.3
Score range: 7–250
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 369 vs event baseline 140.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

150.9Season APEX487.5

22.4Auto44.1

2.9Teleop107.2

4.3Endgame70.1

55Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	42
teleop	28	148
endgame	15	102
foul	15	0
total	77	292

Result

Final score

77 – 292

Prediction correct · off by 55.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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