Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

115.29 – 88.52

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

110 – 93

Prediction correct · off by 4.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 297.9 ±16.2

7594Nautilus

Season APEX 143.3Event APEX 72.31Rank 10Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6399Tinspiratio

Season APEX 121.2Event APEX 35.8Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

11064ASTERIA

Provisional

Season APEX 33.4Event APEX 7.18Rank 23Record 4-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 253.2 ±14.7

4191IMC

Season APEX 105.4Event APEX -2.67Rank 31Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10396Mostra

Season APEX 127.8Event APEX 72.26Rank 8Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11099Capella Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 20Event APEX 18.93Rank 33Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7594, 6399, 11064

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.3 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 7594, 6399, 11064

Auto

18.7 18%

Teleop

58.8 55%

Endgame

28.5 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4191, 10396, 11099

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.5 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 4191, 10396, 11099

Auto

18.8 21%

Teleop

56.4 64%

Endgame

12.6 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.56 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score115.3pts

Blue projected score88.5pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 26.8
Score range: 63–141
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 203 vs event baseline 144.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

297.9Season APEX253.2

18.7Auto18.8

58.8Teleop56.4

28.5Endgame12.6

0Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	5
teleop	59	64
endgame	10	19
foul	30	5
total	110	93

Result

Final score

110 – 93

Prediction correct · off by 4.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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