Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

106.75 – 245.05

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

139 – 336

Prediction correct · off by 61.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 178 ±17.3

11099Capella Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 20Event APEX 16.97Rank 33Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

7594Nautilus

Season APEX 143.3Event APEX 74.63Rank 10Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6430Kalsedon

Season APEX 14.7Event APEX 15.15Rank 28Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 357.5 ±14.9

8557ConquEra

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 28.38Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10998VOLTARIA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 16.38Rank 16Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9609Paraducks

Season APEX 246.2Event APEX 200.29Rank 1Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11099, 7594, 6430

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.8 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 11099, 7594, 6430

Auto

12.5 12%

Teleop

68.8 66%

Endgame

22.4 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8557, 10998, 9609

/ 100 compat

Projected

245.1 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 8557, 10998, 9609

Auto

66.0 26%

Teleop

117.5 47%

Endgame

65.7 26%

Strengths

· 9609 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.68 · Blue 2.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score106.8pts

Blue projected score245.1pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -138.3
Score range: 82–270
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 475 vs event baseline 138.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

178Season APEX357.5

12.5Auto66

68.8Teleop117.5

22.4Endgame65.7

68Consistency3

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	83
teleop	104	184
endgame	12	69
foul	10	0
total	139	336

Result

Final score

139 – 336

Prediction correct · off by 61.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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