Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

89.74 – 57.92

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

83 – 23

Prediction correct · off by 20.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 126 ±16.9

8863ANATOLIAN DEAF ETERNALS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 40.2Event APEX 30.48Rank 22Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 82

8780TED ROBOTICS

Season APEX 18.3Event APEX 7.86Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

8056Laissez Faire

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 51.4Rank 9Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 120 ±15.3

9583Lavender Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 26.32Rank 12Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10478NEO Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 33.6Event APEX 14.19Rank 25Record 4-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9247SainTech Robotics

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX 17.41Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8863, 8780, 8056

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.7 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 8863, 8780, 8056

Auto

24.2 26%

Teleop

33.5 36%

Endgame

35.7 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9583, 10478, 9247

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.9 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9583, 10478, 9247

Auto

25.5 47%

Teleop

23.8 44%

Endgame

5.1 9%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.55 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score89.7pts

Blue projected score57.9pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 31.8
Score range: 33–115
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 106 vs event baseline 139.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

126Season APEX120

24.2Auto25.5

33.5Teleop23.8

35.7Endgame5.1

48Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	11
teleop	47	12
endgame	13	0
foul	0	0
total	83	23

Result

Final score

83 – 23

Prediction correct · off by 20.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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