Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

228.2 – 130.95

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

161 – 199

Prediction missed · off by 67.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 284.1 ±14.7

11257Hi-Sac

Provisional

Season APEX 24.7Event APEX 19.04Rank 32Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

6431NoktaParantez

Season APEX 154Event APEX 187.55Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4191IMC

Season APEX 105.4Event APEX 21.61Rank 31Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 226.2 ±16.4

8079River Robotics Team

Season APEX 164.6Event APEX 127.04Rank 3Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10246ISTAF Team Infinitech

Season APEX 30.5Event APEX 9.21Rank 11Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

8561Cartesian Robotics

Season APEX 31.1Event APEX -5.3Rank 24Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11257, 6431, 4191

/ 100 compat

Projected

228.2 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 11257, 6431, 4191

Auto

29.4 14%

Teleop

114.0 54%

Endgame

67.4 32%

Strengths

· 6431 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8079, 10246, 8561

/ 100 compat

Projected

131 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 8079, 10246, 8561

Auto

25.9 21%

Teleop

75.1 61%

Endgame

22.8 18%

Strengths

· 8079 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.97 · Blue 0.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score228.2pts

Blue projected score131pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 97.3
Score range: 106–253
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 360 vs event baseline 139.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

284.1Season APEX226.2

29.4Auto25.9

114Teleop75.1

67.4Endgame22.8

5Consistency13

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	36
teleop	101	120
endgame	35	33
foul	15	10
total	161	199

Result

Final score

161 – 199

Prediction missed · off by 67.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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