Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

137.94 – 211.82

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

196 – 127

Prediction missed · off by 71.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 210.4 ±16.7

8828EAL Robotics

Season APEX 23.7Event APEX 23.1Rank 21Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

6874Mediterra

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 42.82Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 77

10396Mostra

Season APEX 127.8Event APEX 72.02Rank 8Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 266.9 ±17.3

11098MATRIX

Season APEX 32.2Event APEX 24.79Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

10472Bilkent Next

Provisional

Season APEX 16.6Event APEX 21.27Rank 29Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

11141AlphaZ

Season APEX 218.1Event APEX 165.76Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8828, 6874, 10396

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.9 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 8828, 6874, 10396

Auto

13.2 10%

Teleop

85.7 68%

Endgame

27.6 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11098, 10472, 11141

/ 100 compat

Projected

211.8 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 11098, 10472, 11141

Auto

46.1 22%

Teleop

106.8 50%

Endgame

58.6 28%

Strengths

· 11141 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.05 · Blue 1.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score137.9pts

Blue projected score211.8pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -73.9
Score range: 113–237
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 323 vs event baseline 138.5.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

210.4Season APEX266.9

13.2Auto46.1

85.7Teleop106.8

27.6Endgame58.6

32Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	32
teleop	109	52
endgame	34	38
foul	15	5
total	196	127

Result

Final score

196 – 127

Prediction missed · off by 71.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.