Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

221.26 – 155.55

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

235 – 166

Prediction correct · off by 12.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 322.8 ±15.6

9247SainTech Robotics

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX 10.17Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

9609Paraducks

Season APEX 246.2Event APEX 195.7Rank 1Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11257Hi-Sac

Provisional

Season APEX 24.7Event APEX 15.39Rank 32Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 318.7 ±14.4

4191IMC

Season APEX 105.4Event APEX 21.61Rank 31Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8079River Robotics Team

Season APEX 164.6Event APEX 122.54Rank 3Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10998VOLTARIA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 11.4Rank 16Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9247, 9609, 11257

/ 100 compat

Projected

221.3 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9247, 9609, 11257

Auto

57.6 27%

Teleop

99.3 46%

Endgame

59.2 27%

Strengths

· 9609 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4191, 8079, 10998

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.6 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4191, 8079, 10998

Auto

36.0 23%

Teleop

77.6 49%

Endgame

44.8 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.83 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score221.3pts

Blue projected score155.6pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 65.7
Score range: 131–246
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 401 vs event baseline 139.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

322.8Season APEX318.7

57.6Auto36

99.3Teleop77.6

59.2Endgame44.8

42Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	79	33
teleop	99	82
endgame	57	36
foul	0	15
total	235	166

Result

Final score

235 – 166

Prediction correct · off by 12.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree