Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

208.9 – 197.05

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

154 – 232

Prediction missed · off by 44.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 275.2 ±17.3

11141AlphaZ

Season APEX 218.1Event APEX 170.54Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8828EAL Robotics

Season APEX 23.7Event APEX 30.83Rank 21Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

11064ASTERIA

Provisional

Season APEX 33.4Event APEX 7.53Rank 23Record 4-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 219.6 ±12.7

8561Cartesian Robotics

Season APEX 31.1Event APEX -10.3Rank 24Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

6431NoktaParantez

Season APEX 154Event APEX 180.68Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9583Lavender Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 26.67Rank 12Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11141, 8828, 11064

/ 100 compat

Projected

208.9 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 11141, 8828, 11064

Auto

48.9 25%

Teleop

114.3 58%

Endgame

34.9 18%

Strengths

· 11141 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8561, 6431, 9583

/ 100 compat

Projected

197.1 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 8561, 6431, 9583

Auto

30.7 17%

Teleop

102.3 55%

Endgame

51.7 28%

Strengths

· 6431 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score208.9pts

Blue projected score197.1pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 11.8
Score range: 172–234
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 386 vs event baseline 137.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

275.2Season APEX219.6

48.9Auto30.7

114.3Teleop102.3

34.9Endgame51.7

32Consistency65

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	38
teleop	58	136
endgame	47	43
foul	0	15
total	154	232

Result

Final score

154 – 232

Prediction missed · off by 44.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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