Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

261.92 – 103.28

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

219 – 163

Prediction correct · off by 51.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 334.6 ±14.9

7539Elev8

Season APEX 213.1Event APEX 182.54Rank 2Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8557ConquEra

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 33.17Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6874Mediterra

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 46.21Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 265.6 ±16.2

10396Mostra

Season APEX 127.8Event APEX 67.24Rank 8Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10472Bilkent Next

Provisional

Season APEX 16.6Event APEX 11.3Rank 29Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

6399Tinspiratio

Season APEX 121.2Event APEX 24.74Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7539, 8557, 6874

/ 100 compat

Projected

261.9 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 7539, 8557, 6874

Auto

44.4 17%

Teleop

155.8 59%

Endgame

63.4 24%

Strengths

· 7539 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10396, 10472, 6399

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.3 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 10396, 10472, 6399

Auto

12.9 13%

Teleop

68.9 71%

Endgame

15.1 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.23 · Blue 0.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score261.9pts

Blue projected score103.3pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 158.6
Score range: 78–287
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 382 vs event baseline 136.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

334.6Season APEX265.6

44.4Auto12.9

155.8Teleop68.9

63.4Endgame15.1

27Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	18
teleop	127	82
endgame	44	58
foul	0	5
total	219	163

Result

Final score

219 – 163

Prediction correct · off by 51.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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