Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

54.53 – 42.17

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

29 – 75

Prediction missed · off by 29.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 95.4 ±19.1

6430Kalsedon

Season APEX 14.7Event APEX 14.61Rank 28Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 77

11022RISING STAR ROBOTIC TEAM

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 29.78Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

8780TED ROBOTICS

Season APEX 18.3Event APEX 10.14Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 107.3 ±18.1

11099Capella Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 20Event APEX 7.02Rank 33Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

10542EAGLE WARRIORS

Season APEX 55.1Event APEX 16.73Rank 26Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11098MATRIX

Season APEX 32.2Event APEX 18.42Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6430, 11022, 8780

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.5 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 6430, 11022, 8780

Auto

13.1 25%

Teleop

33.8 64%

Endgame

6.3 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11099, 10542, 11098

/ 100 compat

Projected

42.2 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 11099, 10542, 11098

Auto

20.0 57%

Teleop

7.0 20%

Endgame

8.3 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.5 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score54.5pts

Blue projected score42.2pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 12.4
Score range: 17–80
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 104 vs event baseline 138.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

95.4Season APEX107.3

13.1Auto20

33.8Teleop7

6.3Endgame8.3

45Consistency120

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	17
teleop	15	40
endgame	0	18
foul	0	0
total	29	75

Result

Final score

29 – 75

Prediction missed · off by 29.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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