Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

83.24 – 106.67

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

120 – 187

Prediction correct · off by 58.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 233.9 ±16.4

8863ANATOLIAN DEAF ETERNALS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 40.2Event APEX 30.17Rank 22Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 82

10180ÇOROBOT

Provisional

Season APEX 45.5Event APEX 12.53Rank 14Record 6-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

5665FENERBAHÇE DOGUS SPARC

Season APEX 148.2Event APEX 40.54Rank 6Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 254.4 ±12.2

11300ZENITH

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 10.34Rank 17Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8056Laissez Faire

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 36.29Rank 9Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7594Nautilus

Season APEX 143.3Event APEX 60.04Rank 10Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8863, 10180, 5665

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.2 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 8863, 10180, 5665

Auto

21.8 25%

Teleop

22.8 27%

Endgame

41.0 48%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11300, 8056, 7594

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.7 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 11300, 8056, 7594

Auto

20.1 20%

Teleop

42.0 42%

Endgame

37.1 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.29 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score83.2pts

Blue projected score106.7pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -23.4
Score range: 58–132
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 307 vs event baseline 138.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

233.9Season APEX254.4

21.8Auto20.1

22.8Teleop42

41Endgame37.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	26
teleop	61	105
endgame	45	56
foul	0	0
total	120	187

Result

Final score

120 – 187

Prediction correct · off by 58.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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