Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

79.75 – 302.97

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

43 – 371

Prediction correct · off by 52.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 116.7 ±14.5

6430Kalsedon

Season APEX 14.7Event APEX 11.94Rank 28Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9583Lavender Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 23.82Rank 12Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8056Laissez Faire

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 43.99Rank 9Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 449.9 ±13.9

7539Elev8

Season APEX 213.1Event APEX 142.65Rank 2Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10940AVIATRONIX

Season APEX 18.7Event APEX 5.81Rank 30Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 76

11141AlphaZ

Season APEX 218.1Event APEX 154.51Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6430, 9583, 8056

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.8 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 6430, 9583, 8056

Auto

27.0 36%

Teleop

38.6 51%

Endgame

9.7 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7539, 10940, 11141

/ 100 compat

Projected

303 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 7539, 10940, 11141

Auto

62.4 20%

Teleop

171.1 56%

Endgame

74.5 24%

Strengths

· 11141 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.54 · Blue 2.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score79.8pts

Blue projected score303pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -223.2
Score range: 54–329
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 414 vs event baseline 144.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

116.7Season APEX449.9

27Auto62.4

38.6Teleop171.1

9.7Endgame74.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	76
teleop	1	247
endgame	9	48
foul	15	0
total	43	371

Result

Final score

43 – 371

Prediction correct · off by 52.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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