Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

246.8 – 40.02

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

193 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 28.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 211.3 ±17.3

8828EAL Robotics

Season APEX 23.7Event APEX 42.86Rank 21Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

6431NoktaParantez

Season APEX 154Event APEX 184.4Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10478NEO Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 33.6Event APEX 19.54Rank 25Record 4-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 154.6 ±16.7

10246ISTAF Team Infinitech

Season APEX 30.5Event APEX 10.62Rank 11Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

4191IMC

Season APEX 105.4Event APEX 21.29Rank 31Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10940AVIATRONIX

Season APEX 18.7Event APEX 8.11Rank 30Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8828, 6431, 10478

/ 100 compat

Projected

246.8 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 8828, 6431, 10478

Auto

33.1 14%

Teleop

132.3 55%

Endgame

74.0 31%

Strengths

· 6431 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10246, 4191, 10940

/ 100 compat

Projected

40 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 10246, 4191, 10940

Auto

0.6 2%

Teleop

23.8 60%

Endgame

15.0 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.35 · Blue 0.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score246.8pts

Blue projected score40pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 206.8
Score range: 15–272
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 230 vs event baseline 138.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

211.3Season APEX154.6

33.1Auto0.6

132.3Teleop23.8

74Endgame15

66Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	12
teleop	111	24
endgame	9	1
foul	60	0
total	193	37

Result

Final score

193 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 28.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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