Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

188.52 – 44.09

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

320 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 68.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 297.3 ±14.3

9609Paraducks

Season APEX 246.2Event APEX 181.53Rank 1Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9583Lavender Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 12.38Rank 12Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10472Bilkent Next

Provisional

Season APEX 16.6Event APEX -5.39Rank 29Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 191.4 ±16.3

8780TED ROBOTICS

Season APEX 18.3Event APEX 9.83Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9247SainTech Robotics

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX 12.27Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

6399Tinspiratio

Season APEX 121.2Event APEX 21.99Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9609, 9583, 10472

/ 100 compat

Projected

188.5 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9609, 9583, 10472

Auto

53.1 29%

Teleop

84.0 45%

Endgame

48.3 26%

Strengths

· 9609 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8780, 9247, 6399

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.1 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 8780, 9247, 6399

Auto

14.6 36%

Teleop

13.8 34%

Endgame

12.2 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.23 · Blue 0.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score188.5pts

Blue projected score44.1pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 144.4
Score range: 19–214
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 369 vs event baseline 137.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

297.3Season APEX191.4

53.1Auto14.6

84Teleop13.8

48.3Endgame12.2

21Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	13
teleop	188	21
endgame	64	15
foul	0	0
total	320	49

Result

Final score

320 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 68.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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