Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

42.01 – 78.93

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

45 – 34

Prediction missed · off by 24 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 123.4 ±19.1

11064ASTERIA

Provisional

Season APEX 33.4Event APEX 9.2Rank 23Record 4-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

8561Cartesian Robotics

Season APEX 31.1Event APEX -11.13Rank 24Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

6874Mediterra

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 43.94Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 107.1 ±20.2

11022RISING STAR ROBOTIC TEAM

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 42.25Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

11257Hi-Sac

Provisional

Season APEX 24.7Event APEX 26.2Rank 32Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

11099Capella Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 20Event APEX 10.48Rank 33Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11064, 8561, 6874

/ 100 compat

Projected

42 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 11064, 8561, 6874

Auto

15.9 39%

Teleop

20.6 50%

Endgame

4.4 11%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11022, 11257, 11099

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.9 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 11022, 11257, 11099

Auto

15.3 20%

Teleop

40.1 52%

Endgame

21.7 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.16 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score42pts

Blue projected score78.9pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -36.9
Score range: 17–104
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 79 vs event baseline 140.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

123.4Season APEX107.1

15.9Auto15.3

20.6Teleop40.1

4.4Endgame21.7

63Consistency106

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	7
teleop	17	24
endgame	7	3
foul	5	0
total	45	34

Result

Final score

45 – 34

Prediction missed · off by 24 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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