Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

83.25 – 288.1

7%93%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

82 – 335

Prediction correct · off by 24.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 117.5 ±16.9

8863ANATOLIAN DEAF ETERNALS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 40.2Event APEX 32.29Rank 22Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 82

8557ConquEra

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 30.87Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6430Kalsedon

Season APEX 14.7Event APEX 20.09Rank 28Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 426.3 ±11.6

11141AlphaZ

Season APEX 218.1Event APEX 163.06Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11300ZENITH

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 5.26Rank 17Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8079River Robotics Team

Season APEX 164.6Event APEX 119.78Rank 3Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8863, 8557, 6430

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.3 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 8863, 8557, 6430

Auto

13.5 15%

Teleop

51.0 57%

Endgame

24.7 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11141, 11300, 8079

/ 100 compat

Projected

288.1 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 11141, 11300, 8079

Auto

50.5 18%

Teleop

173.2 61%

Endgame

61.2 21%

Strengths

· 11141 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.51 · Blue 2.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score83.3pts

Blue projected score288.1pts

Red win probability7%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -204.8
Score range: 58–313
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 417 vs event baseline 140.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

117.5Season APEX426.3

13.5Auto50.5

51Teleop173.2

24.7Endgame61.2

0Consistency69

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	64
teleop	31	149
endgame	25	117
foul	5	5
total	82	335

Result

Final score

82 – 335

Prediction correct · off by 24.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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