Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

221.19 – 148.77

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

282 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 65.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 312.8 ±14.9

8056Laissez Faire

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 33.77Rank 9Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7539Elev8

Season APEX 213.1Event APEX 173.26Rank 2Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11098MATRIX

Season APEX 32.2Event APEX 14.16Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 322 ±13.5

5665FENERBAHÇE DOGUS SPARC

Season APEX 148.2Event APEX 53.11Rank 6Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7594Nautilus

Season APEX 143.3Event APEX 70.91Rank 10Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10246ISTAF Team Infinitech

Season APEX 30.5Event APEX 24.75Rank 11Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8056, 7539, 11098

/ 100 compat

Projected

221.2 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 8056, 7539, 11098

Auto

60.5 27%

Teleop

118.2 53%

Endgame

45.5 20%

Strengths

· 7539 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5665, 7594, 10246

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.8 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 5665, 7594, 10246

Auto

31.9 25%

Teleop

57.9 45%

Endgame

37.6 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.92 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score221.2pts

Blue projected score148.8pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 72.4
Score range: 124–246
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 361 vs event baseline 139.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

312.8Season APEX322

60.5Auto31.9

118.2Teleop57.9

45.5Endgame37.6

25Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	70	8
teleop	122	62
endgame	70	9
foul	20	0
total	282	79

Result

Final score

282 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 65.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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