Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

9.74 – 204.86

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

42 – 215

Prediction correct · off by 21.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 154.8 ±16

4191IMC

Season APEX 105.4Event APEX 22.58Rank 31Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8561Cartesian Robotics

Season APEX 31.1Event APEX -13.67Rank 24Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

8780TED ROBOTICS

Season APEX 18.3Event APEX 0.83Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 310.4 ±17.3

10180ÇOROBOT

Provisional

Season APEX 45.5Event APEX 12.72Rank 14Record 6-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9609Paraducks

Season APEX 246.2Event APEX 180.98Rank 1Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10940AVIATRONIX

Season APEX 18.7Event APEX 11.16Rank 30Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4191, 8561, 8780

/ 100 compat

Projected

9.7 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 4191, 8561, 8780

Auto

10.6 60%

Teleop

-2.2 0%

Endgame

9.4 53%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10180, 9609, 10940

/ 100 compat

Projected

204.9 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 10180, 9609, 10940

Auto

54.4 26%

Teleop

99.9 48%

Endgame

52.1 25%

Strengths

· 9609 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.48 · Blue 2.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score9.7pts

Blue projected score204.9pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -195.1
Score range: -15–230
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 257 vs event baseline 139.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

154.8Season APEX310.4

10.6Auto54.4

-2.2Teleop99.9

9.4Endgame52.1

96Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	16
teleop	22	106
endgame	5	93
foul	0	0
total	42	215

Result

Final score

42 – 215

Prediction correct · off by 21.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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