Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

110.18 – 118.65

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

142 – 85

Prediction missed · off by 32.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 240.2 ±13.5

7594Nautilus

Season APEX 143.3Event APEX 68.56Rank 10Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9583Lavender Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 3.53Rank 12Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11022RISING STAR ROBOTIC TEAM

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 38.09Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 215.5 ±14

11300ZENITH

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 11.71Rank 17Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5665FENERBAHÇE DOGUS SPARC

Season APEX 148.2Event APEX 58.31Rank 6Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8828EAL Robotics

Season APEX 23.7Event APEX 48.63Rank 21Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7594, 9583, 11022

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.2 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 7594, 9583, 11022

Auto

13.2 13%

Teleop

68.3 67%

Endgame

20.5 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11300, 5665, 8828

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.7 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 11300, 5665, 8828

Auto

36.9 31%

Teleop

45.8 38%

Endgame

36.5 31%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score110.2pts

Blue projected score118.7pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -8.5
Score range: 85–144
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 227 vs event baseline 138.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

240.2Season APEX215.5

13.2Auto36.9

68.3Teleop45.8

20.5Endgame36.5

0Consistency138

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	23
teleop	72	27
endgame	44	5
foul	0	30
total	142	85

Result

Final score

142 – 85

Prediction missed · off by 32.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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