Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

225.09 – 81.14

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

226 – 48

Prediction correct · off by 17 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 332.6 ±13.6

8863ANATOLIAN DEAF ETERNALS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 40.2Event APEX 28.63Rank 22Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 82

10396Mostra

Season APEX 127.8Event APEX 70.11Rank 8Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8079River Robotics Team

Season APEX 164.6Event APEX 126.35Rank 3Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 125.6 ±18.8

11064ASTERIA

Provisional

Season APEX 33.4Event APEX 12.79Rank 23Record 4-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

11257Hi-Sac

Provisional

Season APEX 24.7Event APEX 31.03Rank 32Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

8056Laissez Faire

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 37.32Rank 9Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8863, 10396, 8079

/ 100 compat

Projected

225.1 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 8863, 10396, 8079

Auto

26.4 11%

Teleop

142.4 61%

Endgame

62.8 27%

Strengths

· 8079 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11064, 11257, 8056

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.1 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 11064, 11257, 8056

Auto

35.0 46%

Teleop

21.3 28%

Endgame

19.2 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.24 · Blue 0.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score225.1pts

Blue projected score81.1pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 144
Score range: 56–250
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 274 vs event baseline 138.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

332.6Season APEX125.6

26.4Auto35

142.4Teleop21.3

62.8Endgame19.2

0Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	28
teleop	140	11
endgame	47	9
foul	0	0
total	226	48

Result

Final score

226 – 48

Prediction correct · off by 17 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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