Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

76.97 – 17.7

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

146 – 14

Prediction correct · off by 36.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 110.3 ±18.1

11257Hi-Sac

Provisional

Season APEX 24.7Event APEX 19.08Rank 32Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

10542EAGLE WARRIORS

Season APEX 55.1Event APEX 35.62Rank 26Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10246ISTAF Team Infinitech

Season APEX 30.5Event APEX 22.27Rank 11Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 112.1 ±16

10472Bilkent Next

Provisional

Season APEX 16.6Event APEX 18.49Rank 29Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9247SainTech Robotics

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX 4.58Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

11300ZENITH

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX -5.37Rank 17Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11257, 10542, 10246

/ 100 compat

Projected

77 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 11257, 10542, 10246

Auto

17.6 28%

Teleop

32.8 52%

Endgame

12.1 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10472, 9247, 11300

/ 100 compat

Projected

17.7 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 10472, 9247, 11300

Auto

13.6 59%

Teleop

-3.7 0%

Endgame

13.1 57%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.68 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score77pts

Blue projected score17.7pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 59.3
Score range: -8–103
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 160 vs event baseline 144.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

110.3Season APEX112.1

17.6Auto13.6

32.8Teleop-3.7

12.1Endgame13.1

20Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	10
teleop	35	4
endgame	51	0
foul	45	0
total	146	14

Result

Final score

146 – 14

Prediction correct · off by 36.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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