Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

72.27 – 118.8

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

65 – 47

Prediction missed · off by 39.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 125.3 ±17.5

11098MATRIX

Season APEX 32.2Event APEX 15.97Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

10246ISTAF Team Infinitech

Season APEX 30.5Event APEX 25.26Rank 11Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

8557ConquEra

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 31.04Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 128.7 ±17.5

6874Mediterra

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 58.86Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 77

6430Kalsedon

Season APEX 14.7Event APEX 32.73Rank 28Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 77

10542EAGLE WARRIORS

Season APEX 55.1Event APEX 27.21Rank 26Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11098, 10246, 8557

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.3 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 11098, 10246, 8557

Auto

14.4 21%

Teleop

28.5 42%

Endgame

25.0 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6874, 6430, 10542

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.8 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 6874, 6430, 10542

Auto

9.9 9%

Teleop

64.7 61%

Endgame

31.4 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.1 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score72.3pts

Blue projected score118.8pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -46.5
Score range: 47–144
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 112 vs event baseline 141.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

125.3Season APEX128.7

14.4Auto9.9

28.5Teleop64.7

25Endgame31.4

0Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	10
teleop	39	18
endgame	7	4
foul	0	15
total	65	47

Result

Final score

65 – 47

Prediction missed · off by 39.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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