Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

205.05 – 203.82

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

258 – 176

Prediction correct · off by 40.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 395.8 ±9.3

5665FENERBAHÇE DOGUS SPARC

Season APEX 148.2Event APEX 46.38Rank 6Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9583Lavender Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX -9.99Rank 12Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7539Elev8

Season APEX 213.1Event APEX 168.66Rank 2Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 219.3 ±17.3

6431NoktaParantez

Season APEX 154Event APEX 190.08Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10472Bilkent Next

Provisional

Season APEX 16.6Event APEX -2.99Rank 29Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

10998VOLTARIA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 16.73Rank 16Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5665, 9583, 7539

/ 100 compat

Projected

205.1 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 5665, 9583, 7539

Auto

62.0 31%

Teleop

104.9 52%

Endgame

35.9 18%

Strengths

· 7539 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6431, 10472, 10998

/ 100 compat

Projected

203.8 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 6431, 10472, 10998

Auto

32.2 15%

Teleop

112.7 54%

Endgame

63.8 31%

Strengths

· 6431 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score205.1pts

Blue projected score203.8pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 1.2
Score range: 179–230
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 434 vs event baseline 138.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

395.8Season APEX219.3

62Auto32.2

104.9Teleop112.7

35.9Endgame63.8

83Consistency104

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	36
teleop	132	66
endgame	54	44
foul	5	30
total	258	176

Result

Final score

258 – 176

Prediction correct · off by 40.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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