Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

198.8 – 57.87

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

300 – 17

Prediction correct · off by 71 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 395 ±14.7

10478NEO Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 33.6Event APEX 5.31Rank 25Record 4-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

11141AlphaZ

Season APEX 218.1Event APEX 143.55Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7594Nautilus

Season APEX 143.3Event APEX 49.94Rank 10Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 61.7 ±19.6

8780TED ROBOTICS

Season APEX 18.3Event APEX 4.26Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

10940AVIATRONIX

Season APEX 18.7Event APEX 20.87Rank 30Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 76

11257Hi-Sac

Provisional

Season APEX 24.7Event APEX 32.74Rank 32Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10478, 11141, 7594

/ 100 compat

Projected

198.8 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 10478, 11141, 7594

Auto

21.1 11%

Teleop

119.9 63%

Endgame

48.4 26%

Strengths

· 11141 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8780, 10940, 11257

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.9 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 8780, 10940, 11257

Auto

14.4 28%

Teleop

25.0 49%

Endgame

11.3 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.2 · Blue 0.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score198.8pts

Blue projected score57.9pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 140.9
Score range: 33–224
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 317 vs event baseline 137.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

395Season APEX61.7

21.1Auto14.4

119.9Teleop25

48.4Endgame11.3

0Consistency69

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	14
teleop	182	3
endgame	73	0
foul	0	0
total	300	17

Result

Final score

300 – 17

Prediction correct · off by 71 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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