Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

284.32 – 62.49

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

192 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 65.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 316.9 ±16

10246ISTAF Team Infinitech

Season APEX 30.5Event APEX 45.29Rank 11Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

8863ANATOLIAN DEAF ETERNALS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 40.2Event APEX 34.5Rank 22Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 82

9609Paraducks

Season APEX 246.2Event APEX 204.53Rank 1Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 214 ±14.1

10542EAGLE WARRIORS

Season APEX 55.1Event APEX 21.43Rank 26Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10396Mostra

Season APEX 127.8Event APEX 54.39Rank 8Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8561Cartesian Robotics

Season APEX 31.1Event APEX -13.33Rank 24Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10246, 8863, 9609

/ 100 compat

Projected

284.3 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 10246, 8863, 9609

Auto

55.8 20%

Teleop

105.1 37%

Endgame

119.5 43%

Strengths

· 9609 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10542, 10396, 8561

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.5 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 10542, 10396, 8561

Auto

8.5 15%

Teleop

39.7 72%

Endgame

7.3 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.32 · Blue 0.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score284.3pts

Blue projected score62.5pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 221.8
Score range: 37–309
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 293 vs event baseline 137.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

316.9Season APEX214

55.8Auto8.5

105.1Teleop39.7

119.5Endgame7.3

7Consistency137

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	25
teleop	105	66
endgame	29	10
foul	5	0
total	192	101

Result

Final score

192 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 65.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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