Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

171.83 – 58.19

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

198 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 56 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 348.4 ±13.9

6399Tinspiratio

Season APEX 121.2Event APEX 20.88Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

8557ConquEra

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 36.85Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8079River Robotics Team

Season APEX 164.6Event APEX 114.1Rank 3Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 139.9 ±17.5

8828EAL Robotics

Season APEX 23.7Event APEX 30.77Rank 21Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

8056Laissez Faire

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 19.65Rank 9Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10998VOLTARIA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 7.77Rank 16Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6399, 8557, 8079

/ 100 compat

Projected

171.8 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 6399, 8557, 8079

Auto

27.5 16%

Teleop

100.2 59%

Endgame

42.0 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8828, 8056, 10998

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.2 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 8828, 8056, 10998

Auto

36.3 61%

Teleop

23.7 40%

Endgame

-0.8 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.07 · Blue 0.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score171.8pts

Blue projected score58.2pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 113.6
Score range: 34–196
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 342 vs event baseline 135.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

348.4Season APEX139.9

27.5Auto36.3

100.2Teleop23.7

42Endgame-0.8

55Consistency84

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	35
teleop	114	63
endgame	65	46
foul	0	0
total	198	144

Result

Final score

198 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 56 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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