Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

87.81 – 239.77

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

31 – 231

Prediction correct · off by 32.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 136.7 ±17.3

10472Bilkent Next

Provisional

Season APEX 16.6Event APEX -5.59Rank 29Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

4191IMC

Season APEX 105.4Event APEX 34.96Rank 31Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6430Kalsedon

Season APEX 14.7Event APEX 58.44Rank 28Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 327.4 ±14.9

7539Elev8

Season APEX 213.1Event APEX 186.51Rank 2Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9247SainTech Robotics

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX 15.29Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

11022RISING STAR ROBOTIC TEAM

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 37.97Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10472, 4191, 6430

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.8 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 10472, 4191, 6430

Auto

11.6 13%

Teleop

45.7 52%

Endgame

31.0 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7539, 9247, 11022

/ 100 compat

Projected

239.8 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 7539, 9247, 11022

Auto

43.0 18%

Teleop

140.3 59%

Endgame

54.1 23%

Strengths

· 7539 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.65 · Blue 2.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score87.8pts

Blue projected score239.8pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -152
Score range: 63–265
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 262 vs event baseline 140.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

136.7Season APEX327.4

11.6Auto43

45.7Teleop140.3

31Endgame54.1

59Consistency89

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	56
teleop	12	131
endgame	9	44
foul	0	0
total	31	231

Result

Final score

31 – 231

Prediction correct · off by 32.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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