Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

52.1 – 22.25

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

63 – 48

Prediction correct · off by 18.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 198.9 ±18.6

11098MATRIX

Season APEX 32.2Event APEX 38.53Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

6399Tinspiratio

Season APEX 121.2Event APEX 7.2Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

10180ÇOROBOT

Provisional

Season APEX 45.5Event APEX 6.37Rank 14Record 6-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 85 ±17

10246ISTAF Team Infinitech

Season APEX 30.5Event APEX 36.89Rank 11Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

11099Capella Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 20Event APEX 8.24Rank 33Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9583Lavender Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX -22.88Rank 12Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11098, 6399, 10180

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.1 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 11098, 6399, 10180

Auto

5.2 12%

Teleop

17.2 41%

Endgame

19.3 46%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10246, 11099, 9583

/ 100 compat

Projected

22.3 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 10246, 11099, 9583

Auto

2.0 44%

Teleop

-4.7 0%

Endgame

7.2 100%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score52.1pts

Blue projected score22.3pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 29.9
Score range: -4–78
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 111 vs event baseline 143.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

198.9Season APEX85

5.2Auto2

17.2Teleop-4.7

19.3Endgame7.2

51Consistency125

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	13
teleop	27	21
endgame	30	14
foul	0	0
total	63	48

Result

Final score

63 – 48

Prediction correct · off by 18.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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