Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 40.66

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

39 – 83

Prediction correct · off by 40.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 108.3 ±17.1

8561Cartesian Robotics

Season APEX 31.1Event APEX -33.42Rank 24Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

11300ZENITH

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 15.7Rank 17Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10478NEO Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 33.6Event APEX -12.1Rank 25Record 4-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 102.9 ±18.1

10472Bilkent Next

Provisional

Season APEX 16.6Event APEX -20.24Rank 29Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

8828EAL Robotics

Season APEX 23.7Event APEX 24.62Rank 21Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

8557ConquEra

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 36.28Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8561, 11300, 10478

/ 100 compat

Projected

-29.8 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 8561, 11300, 10478

Auto

-9.4 29%

Teleop

-27.8 85%

Endgame

4.5 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10472, 8828, 8557

/ 100 compat

Projected

40.7 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10472, 8828, 8557

Auto

20.9 45%

Teleop

29.0 62%

Endgame

-3.0 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.93 · Blue 1.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score-29.8pts

Blue projected score40.7pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -40.7
Score range: -27–68
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 122 vs event baseline 147.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

108.3Season APEX102.9

-9.4Auto20.9

-27.8Teleop29

4.5Endgame-3

168Consistency157

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	19
teleop	7	50
endgame	17	14
foul	0	0
total	39	83

Result

Final score

39 – 83

Prediction correct · off by 40.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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