Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

101.59 – 62.44

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

141 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 23.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 225.4 ±16.3

6874Mediterra

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 33.57Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 77

5665FENERBAHÇE DOGUS SPARC

Season APEX 148.2Event APEX 60.37Rank 6Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8780TED ROBOTICS

Season APEX 18.3Event APEX 7.65Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 95 ±17.9

8561Cartesian Robotics

Season APEX 31.1Event APEX -4.24Rank 24Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

8863ANATOLIAN DEAF ETERNALS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 40.2Event APEX 35.65Rank 22Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 82

8828EAL Robotics

Season APEX 23.7Event APEX 31.03Rank 21Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6874, 5665, 8780

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.6 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 6874, 5665, 8780

Auto

24.4 25%

Teleop

46.4 48%

Endgame

26.0 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8561, 8863, 8828

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.4 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 8561, 8863, 8828

Auto

18.6 35%

Teleop

24.2 45%

Endgame

10.4 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score101.6pts

Blue projected score62.4pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 39.2
Score range: 36–128
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 196 vs event baseline 144.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

225.4Season APEX95

24.4Auto18.6

46.4Teleop24.2

26Endgame10.4

24Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	14
teleop	59	21
endgame	35	20
foul	15	0
total	141	55

Result

Final score

141 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 23.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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