Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

125.33 – 263.01

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

49 – 204

Prediction correct · off by 67.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 110.8 ±16.9

10940AVIATRONIX

Season APEX 18.7Event APEX 25.8Rank 30Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9247SainTech Robotics

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX 41.38Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

8863ANATOLIAN DEAF ETERNALS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 40.2Event APEX 58.15Rank 22Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 82

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 285.9 ±17.1

8079River Robotics Team

Season APEX 164.6Event APEX 130.75Rank 3Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11022RISING STAR ROBOTIC TEAM

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 61.16Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

6874Mediterra

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 71.1Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10940, 9247, 8863

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.3 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 10940, 9247, 8863

Auto

15.7 12%

Teleop

72.4 53%

Endgame

48.2 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8079, 11022, 6874

/ 100 compat

Projected

263 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 8079, 11022, 6874

Auto

18.4 7%

Teleop

133.3 53%

Endgame

99.6 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.67 · Blue 2.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score125.3pts

Blue projected score263pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -137.7
Score range: 98–290
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 253 vs event baseline 148.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

110.8Season APEX285.9

15.7Auto18.4

72.4Teleop133.3

48.2Endgame99.6

29Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	37
teleop	13	136
endgame	16	31
foul	0	0
total	49	204

Result

Final score

49 – 204

Prediction correct · off by 67.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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