Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

348.07 – 85.49

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

372 – 60

Prediction correct · off by 24.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 400.5 ±14.7

7539Elev8

Season APEX 213.1Event APEX 171.77Rank 2Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11064ASTERIA

Provisional

Season APEX 33.4Event APEX 17.77Rank 23Record 4-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

6431NoktaParantez

Season APEX 154Event APEX 158.53Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 216.7 ±14.9

10542EAGLE WARRIORS

Season APEX 55.1Event APEX 31.15Rank 26Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8780TED ROBOTICS

Season APEX 18.3Event APEX 1.59Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

7594Nautilus

Season APEX 143.3Event APEX 52.75Rank 10Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7539, 11064, 6431

/ 100 compat

Projected

348.1 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 7539, 11064, 6431

Auto

63.4 18%

Teleop

204.4 59%

Endgame

80.7 23%

Strengths

· 7539 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10542, 8780, 7594

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.5 pts

~0.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 10542, 8780, 7594

Auto

1.5 2%

Teleop

44.6 72%

Endgame

15.7 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.54 · Blue 0.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score348.1pts

Blue projected score85.5pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 262.6
Score range: 59–374
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 432 vs event baseline 144.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

400.5Season APEX216.7

63.4Auto1.5

204.4Teleop44.6

80.7Endgame15.7

141Consistency96

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	78	16
teleop	211	39
endgame	83	5
foul	0	0
total	372	60

Result

Final score

372 – 60

Prediction correct · off by 24.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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