Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

123.24 – 194.63

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

60 – 217

Prediction correct · off by 42.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 250.3 ±15.4

6399Tinspiratio

Season APEX 121.2Event APEX 28.35Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

8828EAL Robotics

Season APEX 23.7Event APEX 29Rank 21Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

4191IMC

Season APEX 105.4Event APEX 65.89Rank 31Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 281.5 ±16.7

10998VOLTARIA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 5.56Rank 16Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

6430Kalsedon

Season APEX 14.7Event APEX 55.7Rank 28Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 77

11141AlphaZ

Season APEX 218.1Event APEX 133.37Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6399, 8828, 4191

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.2 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 6399, 8828, 4191

Auto

23.1 19%

Teleop

75.7 63%

Endgame

22.1 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10998, 6430, 11141

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.6 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 10998, 6430, 11141

Auto

30.9 16%

Teleop

128.7 67%

Endgame

32.1 17%

Strengths

· 11141 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.93 · Blue 1.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score123.2pts

Blue projected score194.6pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -71.4
Score range: 97–221
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 277 vs event baseline 144.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

250.3Season APEX281.5

23.1Auto30.9

75.7Teleop128.7

22.1Endgame32.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	47
teleop	31	127
endgame	19	43
foul	0	0
total	60	217

Result

Final score

60 – 217

Prediction correct · off by 42.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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