Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

94.7 – 69.02

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

32 – 142

Prediction missed · off by 67.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 82.3 ±17.7

10940AVIATRONIX

Season APEX 18.7Event APEX 49.12Rank 30Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 76

11300ZENITH

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 25.09Rank 17Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11099Capella Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 20Event APEX 20.49Rank 33Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 327.9 ±11.2

9247SainTech Robotics

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX 15.05Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

5665FENERBAHÇE DOGUS SPARC

Season APEX 148.2Event APEX 53.89Rank 6Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10396Mostra

Season APEX 127.8Event APEX 0.08Rank 8Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10940, 11300, 11099

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.7 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 10940, 11300, 11099

Auto

19.8 23%

Teleop

53.7 63%

Endgame

12.0 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9247, 5665, 10396

/ 100 compat

Projected

69 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9247, 5665, 10396

Auto

27.5 42%

Teleop

25.2 38%

Endgame

13.3 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.5 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score94.7pts

Blue projected score69pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 25.7
Score range: 42–122
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 174 vs event baseline 148.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

82.3Season APEX327.9

19.8Auto27.5

53.7Teleop25.2

12Endgame13.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	32
teleop	10	67
endgame	10	43
foul	0	0
total	32	142

Result

Final score

32 – 142

Prediction missed · off by 67.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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