Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

197.32 – 147.24

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

313 – 27

Prediction correct · off by 118 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 411.3 ±15.1

10478NEO Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 33.6Event APEX -33.67Rank 25Record 4-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

7539Elev8

Season APEX 213.1Event APEX 133.84Rank 2Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8079River Robotics Team

Season APEX 164.6Event APEX 97.15Rank 3Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 206.6 ±16

7594Nautilus

Season APEX 143.3Event APEX 83.01Rank 10Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11098MATRIX

Season APEX 32.2Event APEX 80.79Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

8561Cartesian Robotics

Season APEX 31.1Event APEX -16.56Rank 24Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10478, 7539, 8079

/ 100 compat

Projected

197.3 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 10478, 7539, 8079

Auto

51.0 25%

Teleop

110.5 55%

Endgame

40.8 20%

Strengths

· 7539 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7594, 11098, 8561

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.2 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 7594, 11098, 8561

Auto

25.9 19%

Teleop

69.6 50%

Endgame

42.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.87 · Blue 1.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score197.3pts

Blue projected score147.2pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 50.1
Score range: 120–224
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 340 vs event baseline 147.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

411.3Season APEX206.6

51Auto25.9

110.5Teleop69.6

40.8Endgame42.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	5
teleop	183	5
endgame	76	2
foul	5	15
total	313	27

Result

Final score

313 – 27

Prediction correct · off by 118 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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