Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

94.13 – 114.09

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

88 – 97

Prediction correct · off by 11.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 185.2 ±13.9

10542EAGLE WARRIORS

Season APEX 55.1Event APEX 40.48Rank 26Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8557ConquEra

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 38.09Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8056Laissez Faire

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 15.56Rank 9Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 198.8 ±13.5

9583Lavender Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX -20.73Rank 12Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6874Mediterra

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 68.62Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 77

4191IMC

Season APEX 105.4Event APEX 66.2Rank 31Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10542, 8557, 8056

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.1 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 10542, 8557, 8056

Auto

28.4 38%

Teleop

27.3 37%

Endgame

18.2 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9583, 6874, 4191

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.1 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9583, 6874, 4191

Auto

7.4 7%

Teleop

47.1 44%

Endgame

53.5 50%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.23 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score94.1pts

Blue projected score114.1pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -20
Score range: 67–141
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 185 vs event baseline 151.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

185.2Season APEX198.8

28.4Auto7.4

27.3Teleop47.1

18.2Endgame53.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	9
teleop	36	57
endgame	30	31
foul	0	0
total	88	97

Result

Final score

88 – 97

Prediction correct · off by 11.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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