Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

313.75 – 126.46

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

395 – 29

Prediction correct · off by 89.4 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 526.7 ±13.9

11141AlphaZ

Season APEX 218.1Event APEX 100.17Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11022RISING STAR ROBOTIC TEAM

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 53.58Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9609Paraducks

Season APEX 246.2Event APEX 160Rank 1Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 82.2 ±19.6

8780TED ROBOTICS

Season APEX 18.3Event APEX 23.94Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

11064ASTERIA

Provisional

Season APEX 33.4Event APEX 41.24Rank 23Record 4-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

10246ISTAF Team Infinitech

Season APEX 30.5Event APEX 61.28Rank 11Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11141, 11022, 9609

/ 100 compat

Projected

313.8 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 11141, 11022, 9609

Auto

79.0 25%

Teleop

166.4 52%

Endgame

75.0 23%

Strengths

· 9609 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8780, 11064, 10246

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.5 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 8780, 11064, 10246

Auto

29.9 30%

Teleop

40.6 40%

Endgame

30.3 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.5 · Blue 0.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score313.8pts

Blue projected score126.5pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 187.3
Score range: 100–340
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 424 vs event baseline 143.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

526.7Season APEX82.2

79Auto29.9

166.4Teleop40.6

75Endgame30.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	16
teleop	216	8
endgame	124	5
foul	0	0
total	395	29

Result

Final score

395 – 29

Prediction correct · off by 89.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree