Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

34.82 – 169.69

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

71 – 308

Prediction correct · off by 87.2 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 95.6 ±18.1

11099Capella Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 20Event APEX 31.59Rank 33Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

8828EAL Robotics

Season APEX 23.7Event APEX 1.41Rank 21Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9247SainTech Robotics

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX 1.82Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 461.8 ±10.4

7594Nautilus

Season APEX 143.3Event APEX 28.21Rank 10Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4191IMC

Season APEX 105.4Event APEX 31.59Rank 31Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7539Elev8

Season APEX 213.1Event APEX 109.89Rank 2Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11099, 8828, 9247

/ 100 compat

Projected

34.8 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 11099, 8828, 9247

Auto

11.6 42%

Teleop

25.2 90%

Endgame

-8.9 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7594, 4191, 7539

/ 100 compat

Projected

169.7 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 7594, 4191, 7539

Auto

24.1 16%

Teleop

109.8 74%

Endgame

14.7 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.66 · Blue 2.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score34.8pts

Blue projected score169.7pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -134.9
Score range: 10–195
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 379 vs event baseline 139.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

95.6Season APEX461.8

11.6Auto24.1

25.2Teleop109.8

-8.9Endgame14.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	53
teleop	41	168
endgame	8	87
foul	0	0
total	71	308

Result

Final score

71 – 308

Prediction correct · off by 87.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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