Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

167.18 – 56.09

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

108 – 25

Prediction correct · off by 45.1 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 254.2 ±11.7

9583Lavender Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 12.27Rank 12Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8079River Robotics Team

Season APEX 164.6Event APEX 116.84Rank 3Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10542EAGLE WARRIORS

Season APEX 55.1Event APEX 38.07Rank 26Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 177 ±18

6399Tinspiratio

Season APEX 121.2Event APEX 21.97Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

8561Cartesian Robotics

Season APEX 31.1Event APEX -3.95Rank 24Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

11257Hi-Sac

Provisional

Season APEX 24.7Event APEX 38.07Rank 32Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9583, 8079, 10542

/ 100 compat

Projected

167.2 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9583, 8079, 10542

Auto

31.2 22%

Teleop

66.2 46%

Endgame

45.8 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6399, 8561, 11257

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.1 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 6399, 8561, 11257

Auto

4.4 14%

Teleop

23.5 77%

Endgame

2.5 8%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.04 · Blue 0.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score167.2pts

Blue projected score56.1pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 111.1
Score range: 29–194
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 133 vs event baseline 147.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

254.2Season APEX177

31.2Auto4.4

66.2Teleop23.5

45.8Endgame2.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	4
teleop	70	5
endgame	2	11
foul	5	5
total	108	25

Result

Final score

108 – 25

Prediction correct · off by 45.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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