Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

53.06 – 231.51

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

29 – 276

Prediction correct · off by 34.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 114.5 ±19.6

10998VOLTARIA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 26.53Rank 16Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

10478NEO Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 33.6Event APEX 10.08Rank 25Record 4-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

11098MATRIX

Season APEX 32.2Event APEX 16.45Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 279 ±14.9

6431NoktaParantez

Season APEX 154Event APEX 166.62Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11022RISING STAR ROBOTIC TEAM

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 27.4Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

8557ConquEra

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 37.49Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10998, 10478, 11098

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.1 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 10998, 10478, 11098

Auto

17.3 41%

Teleop

15.2 36%

Endgame

9.3 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6431, 11022, 8557

/ 100 compat

Projected

231.5 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 6431, 11022, 8557

Auto

29.7 14%

Teleop

127.9 60%

Endgame

57.2 27%

Strengths

· 6431 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.6 · Blue 2.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score53.1pts

Blue projected score231.5pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -178.4
Score range: 27–258
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 305 vs event baseline 144.6.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

114.5Season APEX279

17.3Auto29.7

15.2Teleop127.9

9.3Endgame57.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	37
teleop	8	165
endgame	8	74
foul	0	0
total	29	276

Result

Final score

29 – 276

Prediction correct · off by 34.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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