Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

172.56 – 326.15

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

131 – 237

Prediction correct · off by 65.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 346.6 ±11.2

10542EAGLE WARRIORS

Season APEX 55.1Event APEX 37.34Rank 26Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7594Nautilus

Season APEX 143.3Event APEX 73.44Rank 10Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5665FENERBAHÇE DOGUS SPARC

Season APEX 148.2Event APEX 61.78Rank 6Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 502.9 ±11

11300ZENITH

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX -2.89Rank 17Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9609Paraducks

Season APEX 246.2Event APEX 183.46Rank 1Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7539Elev8

Season APEX 213.1Event APEX 145.58Rank 2Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10542, 7594, 5665

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.6 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 10542, 7594, 5665

Auto

30.4 20%

Teleop

93.9 61%

Endgame

30.1 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11300, 9609, 7539

/ 100 compat

Projected

326.2 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 11300, 9609, 7539

Auto

84.4 23%

Teleop

175.9 49%

Endgame

101.2 28%

Strengths

· 9609 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.65 · Blue 2.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score172.6pts

Blue projected score326.2pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -153.6
Score range: 147–352
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 368 vs event baseline 144.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

346.6Season APEX502.9

30.4Auto84.4

93.9Teleop175.9

30.1Endgame101.2

2Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	65
teleop	88	109
endgame	5	63
foul	0	0
total	131	237

Result

Final score

131 – 237

Prediction correct · off by 65.4 pts

Match videos

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