Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

161.68 – 331.1

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

243 – 289

Prediction correct · off by 61.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 346.6 ±11.2

10542EAGLE WARRIORS

Season APEX 55.1Event APEX 33.69Rank 26Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7594Nautilus

Season APEX 143.3Event APEX 69.94Rank 10Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5665FENERBAHÇE DOGUS SPARC

Season APEX 148.2Event APEX 58.05Rank 6Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 502.9 ±11

11300ZENITH

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX -1.22Rank 17Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9609Paraducks

Season APEX 246.2Event APEX 185.31Rank 1Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7539Elev8

Season APEX 213.1Event APEX 147.01Rank 2Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10542, 7594, 5665

/ 100 compat

Projected

161.7 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 10542, 7594, 5665

Auto

32.0 22%

Teleop

88.7 61%

Endgame

24.3 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11300, 9609, 7539

/ 100 compat

Projected

331.1 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 11300, 9609, 7539

Auto

87.2 24%

Teleop

183.3 49%

Endgame

100.0 27%

Strengths

· 9609 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.61 · Blue 2.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score161.7pts

Blue projected score331.1pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -169.4
Score range: 136–357
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 532 vs event baseline 142.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

346.6Season APEX502.9

32Auto87.2

88.7Teleop183.3

24.3Endgame100

2Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	59
teleop	125	115
endgame	70	115
foul	30	0
total	243	289

Result

Final score

243 – 289

Prediction correct · off by 61.7 pts

Match videos

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