Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

66.17 – 71.69

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

124 – 122

Prediction missed · off by 54.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 101.7 ±20.4

11416Raptoris Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX -6.53Rank 17Record 5-9-0Status establishedConfidence 80

10243Yücel Boru ANATOLIAN WOLVES

Provisional

Season APEX 36.7Event APEX 47.69Rank 6Record 8-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

10246ISTAF Team Infinitech

Season APEX 30.5Event APEX 25.01Rank 7Record 8-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 176.4 ±21.4

9160YAL THUNDERS

Provisional

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 35.54Rank 15Record 5-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

11022RISING STAR ROBOTIC TEAM

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 21.24Rank 11Record 7-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

10521ERA Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 14.91Rank 10Record 7-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11416, 10243, 10246

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.2 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 11416, 10243, 10246

Auto

12.0 19%

Teleop

37.3 60%

Endgame

12.8 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9160, 11022, 10521

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.7 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9160, 11022, 10521

Auto

8.8 19%

Teleop

25.4 56%

Endgame

11.3 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.32 · Blue 1.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score66.2pts

Blue projected score71.7pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -5.5
Score range: 45–93
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 246 vs event baseline 118.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

101.7Season APEX176.4

12Auto8.8

37.3Teleop25.4

12.8Endgame11.3

80Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	22
teleop	69	71
endgame	36	24
foul	0	5
total	124	122

Result

Final score

124 – 122

Prediction missed · off by 54.1 pts