Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

195.83 – 94.55

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

157 – 56

Prediction correct · off by 38.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 102 ±44

9991Off-Season Demo Team 9991

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 31.8Rank 21Record 4-10-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

8795The Chaotics

Provisional

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 80.42Rank 5Record 8-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

11453FutureX Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 58.8Event APEX 83.61Rank 3Record 10-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 66 ±42.9

6038ITOBOT

Season APEX 27.3Event APEX 31.32Rank 8Record 7-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

11365Ignite Robotics

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 50.86Rank 4Record 10-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9995Off-Season Demo Team 9995

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 12.37Rank 19Record 5-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9991, 8795, 11453

/ 100 compat

Projected

195.8 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9991, 8795, 11453

Auto

12.5 11%

Teleop

67.3 59%

Endgame

33.6 30%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6038, 11365, 9995

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.6 pts

~0.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6038, 11365, 9995

Auto

18.4 20%

Teleop

46.7 51%

Endgame

26.0 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.87 · Blue 0.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score195.8pts

Blue projected score94.6pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 101.3
Score range: 74–217
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 213 vs event baseline 118.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

102Season APEX66

12.5Auto18.4

67.3Teleop46.7

33.6Endgame26

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	25
teleop	91	12
endgame	25	4
foul	15	15
total	157	56

Result

Final score

157 – 56

Prediction correct · off by 38.7 pts