Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

95.57 – 49.23

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

107 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 21.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 66 ±42.9

6038ITOBOT

Season APEX 27.3Event APEX 31.51Rank 8Record 7-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

11365Ignite Robotics

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 51.17Rank 4Record 10-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9995Off-Season Demo Team 9995

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 12.89Rank 19Record 5-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 114 ±44

9160YAL THUNDERS

Provisional

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 31.14Rank 15Record 5-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

9992Off-Season Demo Team 9992

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 7.74Rank 20Record 5-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

10521ERA Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 10.35Rank 10Record 7-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6038, 11365, 9995

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.6 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6038, 11365, 9995

Auto

19.0 20%

Teleop

49.5 52%

Endgame

27.0 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9160, 9992, 10521

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.2 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9160, 9992, 10521

Auto

11.9 24%

Teleop

24.9 50%

Endgame

13.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.58 · Blue 0.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score95.6pts

Blue projected score49.2pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 46.3
Score range: 27–118
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 187 vs event baseline 120.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

66Season APEX114

19Auto11.9

49.5Teleop24.9

27Endgame13.1

0Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	22
teleop	33	36
endgame	25	7
foul	30	15
total	107	80

Result

Final score

107 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 21.1 pts