Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

81.42 – 72.72

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

80 – 35

Prediction correct · off by 19.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 66 ±42.9

6038ITOBOT

Season APEX 27.3Event APEX 26.64Rank 8Record 7-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

11365Ignite Robotics

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 46.14Rank 4Record 10-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9995Off-Season Demo Team 9995

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 8.64Rank 19Record 5-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 101.7 ±20.4

11416Raptoris Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX -4.75Rank 17Record 5-9-0Status establishedConfidence 80

10243Yücel Boru ANATOLIAN WOLVES

Provisional

Season APEX 36.7Event APEX 50.57Rank 6Record 8-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

10246ISTAF Team Infinitech

Season APEX 30.5Event APEX 26.9Rank 7Record 8-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6038, 11365, 9995

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.4 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6038, 11365, 9995

Auto

19.0 25%

Teleop

35.6 47%

Endgame

20.6 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11416, 10243, 10246

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.7 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 11416, 10243, 10246

Auto

12.4 18%

Teleop

40.6 60%

Endgame

14.9 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.35 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score81.4pts

Blue projected score72.7pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 8.7
Score range: 51–103
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 115 vs event baseline 120.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

66Season APEX101.7

19Auto12.4

35.6Teleop40.6

20.6Endgame14.9

0Consistency86

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	17
teleop	30	14
endgame	9	4
foul	20	0
total	80	35

Result

Final score

80 – 35

Prediction correct · off by 19.6 pts